HK 939 @ 2013/9/02

 

Let's talk about the current trend of CCB. Last time, we have examined the graph of CCB. The

price trend is inside the ascending channel. However,after serveral days of corrections. The rising

price trend begin to deteriorate. Currently, the ascending channel is already violated with less

than average volume. The less than average volume indicates that investors lacks interest in the

stock. Perhap, they think that the stock are valued correctly, or they are just waiting for additional

information to decide to enter into new position of CCB. Although there are some bearish sentiment

on this stock recently, The bearish sentiment is not very significant. It is because the stock is still

holding above $5.6 (The stock is currently valued at $5.68). The price pattern is in the consolidation

phrase.If there is some positive news coming in the near future, the stock is possibly going to rise in

price with high volume. However, if there is no additional stimulus, the stock probably will stay at

the current level or even breakout downside. We cannot say which scenario is most probable because

the stock is still in trading under range. The bulls are the bears are battling inside the consoliation

range between $5.6 to $6.0. One more indicator shows the weekness of the stock price is the

bolinger's band. (the lower band is circled in blue.) . The lower band of the bolinger's band is pointing

downward. This indicate the future volitility may rise or the price trend is worsening in the near

future.

I cannot say nothing more about the trend at the present because I think we have to wait for 

another few days or even a week to find out additional information about CCB's future price

trend.


Please leave your comment. I will reply ASAP.


Finally, thank you for reading my blog.

I will  share more insight in the future.

Alan Lee

BA (Honour) in Economics

University of Alberta

CFA Level 2 Candidate

HK 1398 @ 2013/8/29

 

首先要同大家分享下對技術分析嘅睇法，技術分析（即睇股價圖來預測個市嘅方向）係一門

 

獨立嘅分析技巧。可以預測到一個浪將會去到邊度。定到目標價。定到止蝕價。其實，我哋可以

 

剩係用技術分析，完全唔需要睇基本因素，即係基本面。因為我哋基本上係唔需要知道個市點

 

解跌，我哋剩係想知道，今次跌會跌幾多，去到邊度。而且所有嘅影響股價嘅因素已經完全反映

 

咗係個股價圖入面。所以唔使理基本面，而且會技術分析會比基本分析精确好多。

 

 

不過，係唔係一定啱，又係另外一回事。假如你有聽過EMH (Effective Market Hypothesis)嘅話，

 

你應該知道。個股價已經反映咗市場所有嘅消息。用過去嘅資料，理論上贏唔到好多錢。你試想

 

下。識技術分析嘅人有幾多。連冇讀過金融嘅人，聽收音機都會識用所謂嘅黃金比率。假如佢哋

 

成日都贏嘅話。一個月賺１５％（其實１５％都係保守估計）。五年後，佢哋就會有：

 

 

即係5年係,10萬就會變成4.3億。咁好揾，仲有人做其它工咩？個個人都去曬學技術分析啦！

 

我講呢樣樣野出來，係想帶出, 唔好咁容易相信一Ｄ人，每日入個市，就賺到幾萬。其實，唔係容

 

易。而且，我亦都講過，假如個人識用黃金比例來計算股價嘅反彈位置，但係佢連咩野係

 

Fibonacci Sequence　都講唔出嘅嘅話,你就要小心D了。因為嗰D人將佢哋嘅財富投資係連佢哋

 

自己都唔明白嘅方法上面。因為佢哋唔理解呢個方法，唔知道呢個方法幾時有效，幾時冇效。假

 

如有一日，呢個方法已經完全冇效，佢哋就會將所有賺咗嘅錢，一次過嘔返曬出來。

 

不過，其實我對技術分析係有信心嘅。如果唔係，就唔會寫呢個Blog。但係其實我覺得技術分析

 

要結合埋其它野，先至可以贏。Okay，唔講咁多，講返個市：

 

今次再同大家深入D分析下工行。之前幾日，個市跌得好犀利。其實，呢幾日，令到原本睇來幾

 

好嘅升勢，開始變壞。不過總體來講，近來嘅升勢係可信嘅，因為係Stochastic Indicator入面,畫

 

咗呢條紅線係斜向上嘅，代表個浪一個比一個高。肯定咗近來嘅升勢。而且，係股價圖入面，用

 

紅線畫出來嘅上升軌道未有被近來嘅跌浪跌破 (暫時來講)，所以都暫時都可以看好。

 

不過ＭＡＣＤ已經開始交打交叉，係代表將來股價可能仲有調整嘅空間。Stochastic 係未到超賣。

 

但係而家成交量低。代表投資者入市意欲唔大。投資者暫時都係抱住觀望嘅態度。可能係等緊

 

消息。　而家個股價係5.06。假如，呢一兩個星期內。只股票以高成交向下突破嘅話，咁你就要小

 

心Ｄ了。因為好大可能係出咗壞消息。或者有大基金估貨。會繼續向下調整，尤其是跌破$5.00呢

 

個非常之重要嘅位置嘅話,前景就真係唔樂觀了。因為$5.00呢個位,係上一次升勢嘅頸線,形成咗

 

所謂嘅頭肩頂。而呢個頭肩頂嘅形狀，維持咗８至９個月。上一次股價突破呢個位，價錢最低跌

 

到去$4.4。假如佢今次又跌破嘅話，再試返$4.4嘅機會亦都好大。不過係$4.4嗰度,個支持的确會

 

係幾強嘅，因為嗰度有一個裂口。但係假如再向下望嘅話，就會係$4.15。因為呢度亦都有另外

 

一個裂口未有填滿。個股票而家係一個整固嘅狀態。呢個狀態通常代表股票由強轉弱或者由弱

 

轉強。最後會向上，或者向下突破。而整固時間越長，突破之後走勢就會越快。而且係向一個方

 

向走。而突破之前嘅支持位，就會變成阻力位。或者之前嘅阻力位，就會變成支持位。

 

 

有意見請留言，我會盡快回覆你。

 

還有，請問有冇人鐘意睇中文呢？　

 

 

 

Alan Lee

BA (Honour) in Economics

University of Alberta

CFA Level 2 Candidate

Trading Strategy HK939 @ 2013/8/26

 

Here, let's share about trading strategy. Also, we can find more evidence to support that CCB

is going to increase in value in the near future. To understand technical analysis, we have to

understand the basic. Recently, even people who are not specialized in finance are talking

about the Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci circle, and Fibonacci Fan etc. Further, they

are using the Fibonacci ratio such as 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100% of the vertical

distance of the peak and trough to predict the retracement level of the most recent move without

understanding the basic of technical analysis. Their practices are very dangerous because they

are risking their wealth for something that they don't even understand.

Okay, let's go back to the chart above. We can see a red horizontal line that represents a strong

support of CCB at $6.1. After 3 times of bouncing back from the support level, The stock finally

breakout downside (shown by black arrow). Seeing this opportunity, an experienced technical

analyst ideally could short the underlying, buy put option, or sell call options. Or they can long

bear put spread or long bear call spread (PS: Those strategies not suitable for every investors.)

Because the stock formation is a double top formation, we can measure the move in order to set a

target price for the downside breakout. It is the vertical distance measured from the top of the highest

peak of the "mountains" to the support level (about $0.6). Then we can calculate the target price

=$6.1-0.6=$5.5.

Next, let's talk about the most recent move of CCB. Recently, it breakout the $5.6 with higher than

average volume. Then, $5.6 becomes the recent support of the stock. The double bottom bottom was

form the recent move (vaguely). If the stock can stay above $5.6, the potential will be at least

=$5.6+$0.6=$6.2. In my opinion, this outcome is very likely to happen in the near future.

Thank you very much for reading the post!

Please leave comment if you have any question,

I will get back to you ASAP.


Alan Lee

BA (Honour) in Economics

University of Alberta

CFA Level 2 Candidate

HK 1398 @ 2013/8/24

 

今日同大家分享下對工商銀行嘅意見。為了保持簡單，我今次會針對股價作出分析。

假如你對比一下工商銀行和建設銀行一年嘅股價圖，兩個圖嘅形狀大致上來講其實冇咩分

別。呢個其實係合理嘅，第一：　兩間銀行嘅經營環境相似。，第二：大手買賣呢兩只股票嘅

都係嗰班人（主要都係基金經理）。佢地嘅資金嘅流向，會決定個股價圖嘅形狀。而公司嘅

基本面，經營環境，心理因素等會決定資金嘅流向。所以間接來講，基本面，會決定股價圖

嘅型狀。講返上面呢個圖。第一，而家工行嘅股價係在上升軌道中，其本上來講，升嘅機會

比跌嘅機會大好多。第二，工行已經填滿了股價裂口２。呢個裂口係今年６月出現的。填滿

了呢個裂口,代表投資者對工行嘅信心已經有所恢復。即是，暫時來講，向上嘅機會比向下

嘅機會大好多。而家工行係$5.14。如果佢繼續向上嘅話，下一個阻力位會係$5.6。即係去到

$5.6有機會回一回，如果突破$5.6呢個位，下一個阻力位會係$6.0。呢個亦都係正确嘅。通常來

講，整數嘅價錢都會產生好大嘅心理阻力。但係，如果經濟上有突發事件。尤其是壞嘅事件，

令到股價向下突破$5.1至$5.0。向下嘅機會會變大。如果向下嘅話，$4.4係一個好好嘅支持位。

因為呢度有一個裂口。再向下望，支持位就會係$4.13。不過都係呢句，而家升嘅機會，比跌嘅

機會大好多。因為暫時來講牛（即係睇升嘅人）佔優嘅優勢多Ｄ。


呢個係簡單嘅分析，如果深入分析嘅講，可以睇埋成交量，MACD, Stochastic,RSI, Bolinger

Band,等等嘅技術分析指標。咁樣嘅話，會睇到更多野。


Alan Lee

BA (Honour) in Economics

University of Alberta

CFA Level 2 Candidate

HK 939 @ 2013/8/22

Today, we just study the price pattern of CCB without conerning the volume and other technical

indicators.

According to the chart above. CCB (HK:939) is currently in an uptrend. The ascending channel

extending form $5 to $6. Because there is a big gap in the price pattern between $5.65 to 6.

The resistance at $6 level is extremely high (This may due to the psychological factors of the

market participants). The most recent price movement of the CCB is the correct from $6 to

$5.62. This price movement seemingly break the recently formed ascending price channel.

If this is the case, the stock price may fall back to the support level of around $5. However,

this movement may also be redefining the bottom of the ascending price channel. Therefore,

we have to wait for some days to see the price development of the market. If the ascending

price channel is still in effect, then the price resistance is $6. If the price break out $6 the next

level of price resistance will be at $6.6.


Thank you for reading my blog.

I will  share more insight in the future.

Alan Lee

BA (Honour) in Economics

University of Alberta

CFA Level 2 Candidate